The YouGov poll published today found the former chancellor losing to Liz Truss and Penny Mordant in the final run-off as things stand. Those two factors matter as Mr Sunak heads into a frenetic final 24 hours of campaigning, with the vote tight between Ms Mordant and Ms Truss for second place. Politics Hub: Latest poll sparks resentment for Sunak Ms Mordaunt still leads Ms Truss in MP votes, but only – the Foreign Secretary polled 15 votes in the fourth round to take six votes from her rival. The pair will now battle furiously to win the support of the 58 supporters of the now banned Kemi Badenoch. Ms Mordaunt will face an uphill battle on this front as she sits on the opposite wing of the party to Ms Badenoch, who has publicly questioned her position on trans issues throughout this race. But at this stage of the competition, it’s never a straight battle. MPs make decisions based on who they don’t want to advance as much as who they do want. As fourth-round voting concluded on Tuesday afternoon, Westminster was awash with speculation about how Ms Truss managed to secure 15 votes, given that the candidate eliminated in the previous round was Tom Tugendhat – the man seen as her most natural opponent in the final. five. Could Mr Sunak have lent votes to Ms Truss to give her momentum, only to switch that support to Ms Mordaunt for the last round? There are a few reasons why there could be such a scandal: Camp Sunak is more afraid of a run-off with Mrs Truss than Mrs Mordaunt. Ms Truss, a cabinet heavyweight, has positioned herself as the tax-cutting Tory and true “true blue” in Mrs Thatcher’s mold – testing Mr Sunak for raising taxes to their highest level in 70 years . Read more: Who is Liz Truss? The ‘new Iron Lady’ vying to be PMWho is Rishi Sunak? The candidate who ‘stabbed Johnson in the front’ Who is Penny Mordant? Former wizard’s assistant and Navy reservist The former chancellor will be worried that Mrs Truss will overtake him. As Sunak’s promoter Chris Skidmore put it to me, “I think Rishi vs. Liz will be the most feared contest – this will be a battle of ideas.” This is a rationale for Mr Sunak because he has consistently trailed both Ms Truss and Ms Mordant among party members. The poll published today confirmed the trend once again, but what his team will be looking at is the relative performance of his rivals. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 0:38 Rishi Sunak’s promoter Chris Skidmore tells Sky’s Beth Rigby that clash with Liz Truss is the ‘most feared competition’ Ms Mordaunt, who is leading with party members but a week ago, would now have lost to both Ms Truss and Ms Badenoch in Tuesday’s vote. This suggests that the more members see of Ms. Mordaunt, the less they like her. Mr Sunak will hope to capitalize on this in the coming developments. In a straight battle between the two women battling for second place, Ms. Truss has the upper hand. Badenoch’s remaining supporters are more likely to break for her or Mr Sunak than Ms Mordaunt. But as we head into the final vote, it’s anything but neat or clean. There are also rumors of dossiers and dirty tricks that could be used to torpedo one of the campaigns as gossip in the MPs’ tea room runs out. As we head into the final vote, it’s anything but neat or clean racing. What we know for sure is that the man who wins with MPs is – according to the polls – loses with party members, so all three have everything to play for and everything to lose.
