Illustration by John W. Tomac for POLITICO PARISMaël Blandin believes in many things, but the power of the vote is no longer one of them. The 21-year-old student spends many hours each week volunteering at a food bank, handing out parcels to other students who have difficulty making ends meet. Like many of his generation, he is interested in saving the planet and fighting poverty. But like many of them, he does not believe that electoral politics play a big role in achieving these things. “I’m tired of politicians, they are all hypocrites. “There is nothing that stands out for me, whether it is right, left, right or extreme left,” he said. “Volunteering is a very, very tangible way to help people. But a vote? “If politicians do not follow, your vote is pointless.” With just a few days left until the first round of voting in France’s April 10 presidential election, political passions must have reached a fever. On the contrary, emotions such as Blandin’s are dominating the debate – with worrying consequences for candidates, especially French President Emmanuel Macron. Political participation in France has been declining for decades, but the presidential election was usually one where people turned out. This year, if “he was not particularly interested” he was a candidate, it would be justified to start counting the curtains in the presidential palace of the Elysium. Polls suggest 31% of eligible voters will not bother to vote this year – more than 27% of those who say they will support Macron, the leader, in the first round of voting. A recent poll showed that almost half of France’s youth will miss the vote altogether. “It is very worrying that several weeks before the election, we do not feel that people are so interested in the campaign,” Bruno Jeanbart told OpinionWay.
Dangerous game
For Macron, who faces his biggest challenges from the far right and far left, voter apathy is a threat in itself. Not only could he favor his electoral opponents, who can rely on motivated bases to participate. gives his opponents the opportunity to repeat his expected re-election as illegitimate. Many of them have already begun to do just that, accusing the president of using the war in Ukraine to avoid confrontation with his opponents. Macron officially announced his candidacy for re-election five weeks before the election and has campaigned hard, visiting only a few cities outside Paris as a candidate, most of which are held by close allies. Some say it does not play a role in promoting a healthy political debate – and in preventing a deeper political crisis. “If there is no campaign, the legitimacy of the winner will be raised,” Gerard Larse, chairman of the Senate and a member of the conservative party Les Républicains, warned in a shocking interview with Le Figaro in March. The threatening tone was not lost on Macron, who responded three days later: “The Speaker of the Senate should not say that.” Some of Macron’s top lieutenants do not hide their nervousness about the apparent indifference of voters to this year’s campaign and how their candidate’s top rival, Marin Le Pen, could take advantage of the situation. “We have to be careful that the anger camp is not full,” said one. An overwhelming victory would also jeopardize Macron’s chances of gaining a clear majority in the June parliamentary elections, crippling his efforts to push for reforms in his second term.
The rise of “bof” politics.
Politics was a national sport in France. A French dinner could hardly be considered successful if it did not end up with the guests arguing about which politician was a fraud, which was a sell-out, which deserved support. These days, the debate over politics – and especially the vote – is more likely to provoke a galactic shrug or a “bof”, as the French say when they are not interested in something. “It’s a Teflon campaign where nothing gets stuck,” said a former minister from Macron’s La République En Marche party. “Not even what the president says [gets any attention]. » Experts say France’s voter apathy stems from the same sources of resentment we see in many Western democracies: the feeling that nothing is changing, that politicians’ careers do not represent the people and the rise of fragmented political groups more interested in echo their. social media rather than nationwide elections. But France’s electoral system also plays a role. The most important positions are filled with two rounds of voting, with the leaders from the first round facing each other in the second. For decades, this system kept marginal parties on the sidelines. Even if a fire like Lepen broke in the first round, her opponents would gather to stop her in the second. The same goes for other members of their party. In 2017, for example, Le Pen advanced to the second round with 21 percent of the vote. Not only did he lose to Macron by almost 2-1 in the second round. In the ensuing parliamentary elections, only six of the 577 seats in parliament were given a similar impetus to her party. “It is clear that large sections of the electorate are not represented in French institutions,” said Jean-Yves Dormagen, a political scientist. “[Le Pen’s] far-right National Coalition and [her farther-right rival] “Reconquest is likely to be almost absent in parliament and may encourage out-of-institution protests.” Macron’s rise has complicated the picture. His supremacy in 2017 destroyed the country’s electoral forces in the center-right and center-left, which means that this time it is the traditional parties in France that are most at risk of freezing. Candidates for the Socialist Party and the Conservatives Les Républicains are expected to get 10% or less in the first round of voting. The new dynamics favor the extremes. Lepen is expected to come in second again, with 21 percent of the vote, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. In third place will be far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 15%, with Eric Zemmour, a former journalist convicted of inciting racial hatred three times, tied with Les Républicains for fourth place with 10%. .
Troubled times
On paper, the rise of extremism is good for Macron’s chances in the second round, if he leads voters who do not like him to hold their noses and support him anyway. The French president tried to use the tightening in the polls between himself and Le Pen as an occasion to spark enthusiasm for the vote – but he remains the far favorite, 10 percentage points ahead of Le Pen in the second round. Meanwhile, dull electoral enthusiasm is already being used to call into question his ability to further advance his agenda. “I expect a difficult term,” said researcher Jeanbart. “We are going to elections with a high level of protest, but this leads to the re-election of the establishment. “It’s a strange paradox.” “I do not know what form [the opposition to Macron] “It will take, but I’m sure it will have real difficulties in advancing the reforms,” Jeanbart said. Macron has pledged to push back the retirement age and reform unemployment benefits in his second term. Far-right and conservative candidates have already accused Macron of “stealing the election”. Both Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse of Les Républicains have used the phrase. For some, seeing high-level politicians pushing such buttons raises fears of social unrest. “I’m impressed by the parallels between the crisis in the United States and in Europe,” said Gerard Aro, a French diplomat who has served as ambassador to the United States, referring to what he sees as similarities between France ‘s political landscape and dynamics. in a game in the US in view of the attack on the Capitol in 2021. “There is the same mass of citizens who reject the system and see the bad game and the acquired interests governing politics,” he added. “And then there’s Macron’s hatred of people. There is a section of the population, those trapped in the Yellow Vest movement, have an instinctive hatred for Macron. “This will be strengthened after the elections.” Some former protest leaders are already saying they will take to the streets if Macron is re-elected. And with the impact of the war in Ukraine, fuel prices are already higher in France than when the Yellow Vests demonstrated during his first term. “I’m going to vote for anyone but Macron,” said Michelle, a Normandy retiree and Zemourne supporter who did not want to be named because all of her friends support Macron. “If re-elected, it will start like in World War I.” Elisa Braun contributed to the petition.
