1. There is a strong connection to climate change, almost everywhere. Heat waves, such as the one that broke temperature records across the UK and Europe this week, are the weather phenomena scientists have the most confidence in linking to human-caused climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used its strongest language yet in describing heat waves in its latest assessment, asserting that they have become more frequent and more intense globally since 1950, with greenhouse gas emissions as the main driver. of the changes.
  2. The connection is not as strong, however, in the United States. It will probably come as a surprise to many, but the United States is one of the exceptions to the global trend. The IPCC is much less convinced of an upward trend in American heat waves since 1900, noting that large-scale agriculture and associated irrigation may have helped limit extreme summer weather. Indeed, the US government’s latest National Climate Assessment concluded that the frequency of heat waves in the US has increased since the 1960s — but has not yet reached the levels seen during the first 40 years of the last century. And using an index first presented in a paper I authored, the US NCA concludes that the intensity of heat waves in the US remains well below those seen in the 1920s and 1930s. today, it was worse. Heat waves are now hitting areas that have not traditionally taken them, such as London. Getty Images
  3. No one needs to die from extreme heat. Heat waves are common around the world and are becoming more common in places that rarely experience them, such as London. This hard-earned experience means we have developed a good understanding of how to keep people safe in extreme temperatures. A recent study of heat-related mortality in the US finds a steady decline in risk since the 1970s, even as the population has grown and the frequency of heat waves has increased. Looking ahead, even with the IPCC predicting that heat waves will continue to increase, the World Health Organization argues that with the right adaptive responses, no one needs to die from heat. Of course, knowing what to do and doing it are two different things, which means we need to prioritize better adaptation to extreme weather conditions.
  4. Heat waves will likely become more common and more intense. Air conditioning and other cooling mechanisms will become more integral parts of life. AFP via Getty Images Another place where the IPCC expresses its strongest confidence is in heat wave projections, almost certain heat waves will become more frequent and more intense. It predicts that these increases will occur in future scenarios, with higher future emissions associated with a greater increase in heat waves. This means that as quickly as the world continues to act to reduce fossil fuel consumption, improved adaptation will be needed regardless.
  5. The world will need a lot more air conditioning, and that means a lot more energy. More heat means more demand for air conditioning. The International Energy Agency estimates that there are approximately 2 billion air conditioners in the world today. That number is expected to nearly triple by 2050, with most of the growth in India and China and elsewhere. In the United States, about 90% of households already have air conditioning. In India, it is only about 5% but will likely increase rapidly in the coming decades. More air conditioners mean more energy consumption — the IEA estimates that 37% of the increase in electricity consumption by 2050 will be due to cooling. This increased demand means we must prioritize both more efficient air conditioning technologies and the development of more carbon-free energy supplies such as nuclear, wind and solar. Until we do, we should fully expect fossil fuels to fuel increased air conditioning, because if the choice is between warm and cool, we know that people around the world will choose cool regardless of energy supply, such as we do here in the United States. Heat waves are a fact. So, too, that they will become more common and intense. This means we must redouble our efforts to prepare so that when heat waves do occur, their damage is limited. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado Boulder. He writes about science, politics and policy at The Honest Broker, rogerpielkejr.substack.com.