The fortunes of war engulfing Ukraine are as unpredictable and ominous as ever. Not much good news for any of us. Volodymyr Zelensky fired his intelligence chiefs and the prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova — accusing them of allowing Russian operatives to flourish in Ukraine’s security apparatus. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin made a rare trip abroad — to Tehran to confer with two watchdogs, Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Ibrahim Raisi of Iran. He wants Turkey to help get Russian exports through the Black Sea. From Iran he wants a new fleet of drones and help in processing natural gas and oil products to Asia. Both Zelensky and Putin appear to be in a difficult position, although neither will admit it. On the ground the fighting continues – with very little new ground being taken by either side in the Donbas and along the Black Sea coast. Putin’s artillery continues to crush cities and villages. the latest trick is to set the wheat fields on fire and flay the combine crews as they rush to cut the wheat. On the eve of the Tehran visit, Putin told state media that everything was still going to plan. His former deputy Dmitry Medvedev said “we will achieve peace in Ukraine on our own terms”. It is unlikely, however, that the Russians will capture Donbass by the end of August. They have raw firepower and nothing else. “Since February, Russian forces have become weaker and Ukrainian forces relatively much stronger because of new weapons provided by NATO allies,” a senior NATO official told me this week.
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In the short term, it appears that a bloody stalemate in Donbas could lead to a series of shaky ceasefires. But as was the case with the Donbas wars that began in 2014, followed by two unfulfilled Minsk peace accords, there is no permanent truce on the horizon – even though a growing chorus of opinion across Europe wants it. President Volodymyr Zelensky / PA Medium The problem is that Ukraine is in Putin’s war aims. As Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik think-tank, explains in a brilliant essay in the New York Times this week, the plan to “Russify” Ukraine and return it to Moscow is only a means to a much broader goal. challenge NATO, the US and the EU and everything it stands for. The battle in the Donbass and along the Black Sea is becoming a communal and civil war with a modern twist. The communities are mixed, as are their faiths. About 600 Ukrainian security agents are believed to have stayed behind and are now assisting the Russian occupiers and their local proxies. Mobile phone apps — used so brilliantly to defend Kiev in February and March — are now being used by Russian supporters to locate and text the coordinates of gun emplacements throughout the farmland still held by Ukrainian forces. Russia is finding it difficult to occupy territories occupied by its forces, which are plagued by sabotage raids by stay squads. There is something almost desperate about Tehran’s demand for drones. Drones on both sides are running out in numbers – and needed more than ever to target the ferocious artillery duels across the Donbass. Ironically, the Shahed 191 that has caught Moscow’s eye was based on a US RQ-170 Sentinel that was shot down over Iran after it was withdrawn from Afghanistan in 2011. Robert Fox / Evening Standard NATO allies’ armed engagement in Ukraine must now pick up speed, and quickly. The prospect of a messy deal to get gas and oil from Russia over the winter, or a sudden collapse from Ukraine and all its forces, is highly unlikely this year and possibly next—whatever the Russians want. peace lobby in France, Germany and Italy. The NATO allies surprised the world with the speed with which they brought arms and capital to Ukraine and imposed Russian sanctions last spring. But this is only the first, and perhaps the easiest, move. After all the gestures and promises to increase defense spending, the strategy must move from aspiration to hard action, implementing a strategic support plan that begins now. This is especially true for the UK. Ukraine has exposed Britain’s munitions and military thinking — it has shown some big holes in the capability and management of our forces. The next government needs a new strategic road map and plan that will need a large commercial and industrial market to get results quickly. Any further delay invites risk, problems and new complexities of conflict.
