New electoral system
Alaska, however, does not conduct its elections like other states, and Palin is not like most former governors. Normally, voters vote in party primaries, the top voters advance in the general election under their party flag, and the candidate with the most votes wins the general election. This year, Alaska makes its debut in a type of jungle qualifier (known as the top four qualifier) to select candidates for the general election. In simple terms, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, will run in the same primaries with the first four voters advancing to the general election, which will then be decided by ranking ballot. In addition, voters in snap elections will also have to face more than 50 candidates – conservatives, moderates, liberals – who will appear on the ballot. It is reasonable for a candidate to run in a general election with a very low (ie less than 10%) or high (over 50%) vote. Since Palin is quite well known, she probably initially benefits from the large field of candidates. All you need is a solid base of support to hold general elections in a top four primary system. But Palin’s prominent position also comes with the complication that she is the candidate most likely to be attacked. Conservative opponents will want to gain support from people who would tend to vote for it. The liberal candidates will chase her because they disagree with her policy. In most electoral systems, a candidate like Palin, assuming she wins her party’s primary, would be able to recover from any qualifiers in the general election. Here, however, we will have four major candidates in the general election. These could be candidates who follow Palin from the left and right. We do not know how many of each will be. Will there be two Republicans in the general election? Will it be three? Will all four candidates be Republicans? Maybe only one of them is a Republican.
General electoral complications
According to the general election ranking system, voters can sort their favorite candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of the first ballot, the candidate with the fewest first-place votes shall be disqualified and his / her ballots shall be redistributed to the second choice of his / her constituents. If no one has a majority then, then the candidate with the fewest votes after the second round will be redistributed on the ballot papers of his constituents. The candidate with the most votes after the third round will be declared the winner. If Palin is the only Republican versus a Democrat after two rounds of redistribution, she is probably the clear favorite because of how Republican Alaska is. Palin could, however, face a more modest Republican in the final round. This may prove difficult for her. Democrats, moderate Republicans and moderate independents can work together to oppose it. In addition, the alliances during the different rounds of redistribution of votes could mean that Palin may not even make it to the final round. We have already seen how the ranking vote in the Democratic primary election of the New York Mayor last year led to the candidate initially in the third place, almost surpassing the initial candidate for the first place. Twelve years ago, under different circumstances, Alaska voters re-elected moderate Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski as a candidate for the general election after losing the GOP qualifier to a more conservative opponent. Murkowski was able to do so because many Democrats rallied around her. The electoral system of the top four makes it at least reasonable for a more moderate Republican to win. But perhaps the biggest unknown in this fight is how the Alaskans will react to Palin. She last won the state election in 2006 (or in 2008, depending on whether you count her appearance on that year’s GOP presidential ticket). The longest-serving governor in the country today (Democrat Jay Ensley, Washington) was first elected governor in 2012. A lot has changed since Palin last won in Alaska. She became famous nationally after John McCain elected her as his vice-presidential candidate in 2008. He also became a Fox personality. Of course, you could argue that turning to a more populist GOP would only help Palin. But the lack of party qualifiers complicates its chances of a general election. We will see if the former governor has what it takes to win her first state election in about 15 years.
