The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s March food price index rose to its third consecutive record high, jumping 34 percent from the same period last year, following a war that cut off supply lines from Ukraine and Russia. The index was 12.6 percent higher than in February, a rise that the body described as a “giant leap”. Many poorer countries are already struggling with the impact of Covid-19, and many in the Middle East and North Africa rely on both Ukraine and Russia for their cereal and vegetable oils. Food inflation has helped spark protests in some countries, including Sri Lanka, where the issue has created a serious economic and political crisis. “The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is exacerbating concerns about the impact on global food security,” said Beth Bechdol, FAO Deputy Director-General. “We are witnessing increases in food prices in general.” According to estimates by the FAO and the Ukrainian government, 20 to 30 percent of the land in Ukraine that produces winter grains, corn and sunflower will remain untouched this spring or will be harvested in July and August. The resulting global supply-demand gap for food and feed could push international food prices up 8 to 22 percent above their already high levels, according to the FAO. Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grain and sunflower oil, accounting for about 30 percent of world grain trade. Russia has continued to ship wheat since invading its neighbor in February, but Western sanctions have complicated payments, leading to uncertainty in supplies. The World Bank has already warned that higher food prices could cause permanent damage in low- and middle-income countries and could push millions into poverty. Food costs account for 17 percent of consumer spending in advanced economies, but a much higher percentage in developing countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, food accounts for 40 percent of consumer spending. Inflation in food prices had already taken root before the war in Ukraine began, following poor harvests last year due to bad weather and a sharp recovery in lockdown demand following the pandemic. However, according to the FAO, almost 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30 percent of their wheat imports. In 2021, 36 of the 55 countries with a food crisis depended on exports from Ukraine and Russia for more than 10 percent of their total wheat imports, including 21 countries with a major food crisis.

If food shortages continue, global malnutrition could rise by 8 to 13 million, with the sharpest increases in Asia-Pacific, followed by sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa, the FAO said. . . The fastest increases in the March index were in vegetable oil prices, which rose by 56 percent from last year to a record high. “International sunflower oil prices rose sharply in March, fueled by declining export supplies amid continuing conflict in the Black Sea region,” the FAO said. Cereal prices rose 37 percent year on year, also to record highs.